policy in the Middle East away from the post-9/11 militarization of U.S. But it also offers an opportunity to shift the framework for U.S. Whatever announcements and commitments are made during the trip will require steadier and more pragmatic involvement by the United States on a range of fronts - diplomatic, security, and economic.Ī key objective for this trip is to send a signal that the United States remains committed to the region at a time of geopolitical uncertainty when other outside actors, particularly Russia and China, are working in their own ways to impact trends across the region. The prospects for a new nuclear deal with Iran and progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front appear dim at this time, and the broader global energy and economic picture remains uncertain. Given this current state of play in the Middle East, President Biden’s visit to the region from July 13-16 is unlikely to produce major breakthroughs in the short term. Also, with the West and Russia somewhat reengaged in war in Europe, many countries in the region - and that includes the Gulf states, Egypt, Turkey, and others - realize that they are being courted to align one way or the other and will use that leverage to extract concessions of their own. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other energy producers in the region know they have leverage in this changing environment. Europe’s energy needs are glaring, but even the energy-rich U.S. Indeed, the coming months are likely to see a resurgence of large-scale social unrest in non-oil-producing countries, to say nothing of desperately worsening conditions in the civil war countries, particularly Syria and Yemen, and the increasingly failing state of Lebanon.īut key Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries also feel that they have more leverage in today’s post-Ukraine world. And this comes after more than two years of a pandemic that has seen sluggish economic growth, higher state spending, and growing indebtedness, as well as the prospects of slowing global economic growth and the risk of recession going forward. ![]() The energy importers have also been hit hard by a spike in food prices, as the war in Ukraine has exacerbated previous inflationary trends driving up the cost of key staples like bread. This has been a boon to energy exporters in the Gulf but has put an enormous strain on energy importers across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, and Yemen. ![]() The Russian war on Ukraine has driven up energy prices globally. The Abraham Accords have brought Israel closer to the UAE and Bahrain this could become part of a stabilizing balance of deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, or an additional flashpoint of potential conflict. and Iranian return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the risk of a rapid escalation toward armed conflict. ![]() Tensions between Iran on the one hand and Israel and a number of Arab Gulf countries on the other, stand at a crossroads between the possibility of a U.S. President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East comes at another critical moment for this troubled, and troubling, region. Biden’s Middle East trip offers an opportunity to deepen US engagement in this key regionĪ key objective for this trip is to send a signal that the United States remains committed to the region at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.
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